CBO on 'fiscal cliff': newest estimate is gloomiest yet

The CBO, Congress's budget watchdog, warns that the US economy will 'probably' slide back into recession, if the tax hikes and spending cuts mandated for year's end take effect.

By David Grant,?Staff writer / August 22, 2012

Sheila Bird (r.) waits in line for employment interviews at a job fair at City Target in Los Angeles on Aug. 17. The jobless rate in Los Angeles County was 11.2 percent in July. Without congressional action on the 'fiscal cliff,' the Congressional Budget Office projects that the national unemployment rate will top 9 percent by December 2013.

Nick Ut/AP

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Every time the Congressional Budget Office recalibrates its projections for the economic impact of the nation?s impending "fiscal cliff," the picture gets bleaker.

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That?s the headline news from Wednesday?s CBO update on its budget outlook for the next decade: The?$560 billion mix of spending cuts and tax hikes?that make up the year-end fiscal cliff will "probably" cause a recession in 2013, as the economy would shrink by 0.5 percent for the year.

And not only are the impacts of going over the cliff worse, but the CBO also believes the American economy will be weaker overall even if Congress punts on all of the nation?s pressing issues of taxing and spending by pushing off the expiration of tax breaks and the beginning of spending cuts for a year or longer.

Why? First, the economy is not moving as quickly as the CBO expected it would early in 2012. Second, policies enacted after the CBO?s early-year forecast, such as a one-year extension of the payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits, helped GDP growth this year but their expiration at year's end will lower it in 2013.?

Moreover, uncertainty about how the fiscal cliff will play out is already hurting spending by both businesses and consumers. The CBO?s 2012 economic outlook holds that some households will "probably pull back on spending later in the year in response to rising concerns about the effects of the future fiscal tightening.?

Likewise, while business investment is currently growing ?strongly? and is ?supported by favorable conditions in markets for corporate borrowing,? it is also being ?restrained by businesses? concern about possible major changes in fiscal policies.?

Many economists have recently ascribed at least some part of the slowing economy to uncertainty over the fiscal cliff, as the Monitor previously reported.

Congress?s nonpartisan budget analysts now project the economy will contract by 0.5 percent between the fourth quarter of this year and the same quarter in 2013, if the economy is allowed to sustain some $560 billion in higher taxes and lower spending.

In May, the CBO said the economy would shrink by 1.3 percent in the first half of next year before rebounding to 2.3 percent growth in the second half for a yearly gain of 0.5 percent.

In January, the CBO estimated that the economy would grow by 1.1 percent even if it went off the fiscal cliff.

Going off the fiscal cliff would increase the unemployment rate a notch more than previously expected. Without congressional action, unemployment would breach 9 percent come December of 2013. Previously, CBO expected it to come in at 8.8 percent.

Even if Congress pushes off a reckoning with these budget issues for a year or longer in order to give them even more time to negotiate a solution, CBO believes the economy will be weaker next year than it previously thought. Annual economic growth with a congressional punt on the fiscal cliff would hit an anemic 1.7 percent in 2013 versus the CBO?s May estimate of 4.4 percent growth.

A 1.7 percent growth rate would be slower than the 2.1 percent growth the CBO expects the economy to clock in at this year.

As in previous reports, the CBO noted that allowing the tax hikes and spending cuts of the fiscal cliff to come to pass will dramatically shrink the nation's deficit in coming years. In 2013, for example, the deficit would be $641 billion (or 4 percent of GDP) if the US hits the cliff head-on versus an estimated deficit of $1 trillion (6.5 percent of GDP) if current taxing and spending policies are extended.

Allowing fiscal cliff-like fiscal policy to continue for the next decade would lower US deficits to just 0.9 percent of GDP in 2022 with the nation's overall debt falling from 77 percent of GDP in 2014 to 58 percent in 2022. That's versus a deficit averaging 5 percent of GDP over the next decade if current tax laws are extended and spending cuts are eliminated, with America owing 90 percent of its GDP in debt come 2022. (CBO graphic is here.)

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/AawsxEBCcIU/CBO-on-fiscal-cliff-newest-estimate-is-gloomiest-yet

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petermuellir3: Family Home and Life: Grandparents Say It Saturday ...

Welcome to Grandparent's Say It Saturday. It's good to have you here, I hope you will stop by each link and visit. Not much new around here except the weather has been cooler than normal, now that's good news! Me, I'm about the same. Thanks for coming by today.

Be sure to add yourself to the Grandparent Blogger Directory if you haven't yet. Remember, if you are of grand parenting age and blog, you are eligible here even if it is not about grand parenting; please just keep it family friendly :)

Add your link here every Saturday at Grandparent's Say It Saturday.

  • Please only link to a post, not to your home page.
  • Please link that post back to Family Home and Life
  • Link up to 3 post
  • While you are here check out other linkers and leave some comments
  • Consider following fellow linkers as well as me
  • No Esty Shops or give aways
  • This link is closing on Monday night.
  • I have a new Grandparent Blogger Directory, I hope you will add your blog there
Be sure to visit Lisa at Grandma's Briefs to join her linky, GRAND Social, on Mondays. Thanks for linking up with me!


If you are reading this post anywhere else but at Family Home and Life then it was used without permission! Copyright? Family Home and Life 2012 All Rights Reserved

Source: http://www.familyhomeandlife.com/2012/08/grandparents-say-it-saturday_18.html

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Source: http://branden78.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/family-home-and-life-grandparents-say-it-saturday.html

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Source: http://temblor-dickhead.blogspot.com/2012/08/family-home-and-life-grandparents-say.html

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Source: http://petermuellir3.blogspot.com/2012/08/family-home-and-life-grandparents-say.html

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Farewell social internet marketing business - China Bottle Security ...

Mardi 21 ao?t 2012 2 21 /08 /Ao?t /2012 03:58

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Source: http://laileede001.over-blog.com/article-farewell-social-internet-marketing-business---china-bottle-security-tags---eas-antenna-manufacturer-109270210.html

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Clemens hopes to have fun in return to baseball

By KRISTIE RIEKEN

AP Sports Writer

Associated Press Sports

updated 12:34 p.m. ET Aug. 21, 2012

SUGAR LAND, Texas (AP) - Roger Clemens says his return to baseball with the Sugar Land Skeeters is to have some fun and the "wouldn't even consider thinking that far ahead" to a possible return to the major leagues.

The 50-year-old right-hander was introduced as the newest member of the independent Atlantic League team on Tuesday and he is expected to start for the minor league club on Saturday at home against Bridgeport.

He isn't committing to playing more than one game for the Skeeters, saying he wants to see how Saturday goes first.

Clemens, acquitted in June of charges he lied to Congress when he denied using performance-enhancing drugs, hasn't played for a team since pitching for the New York Yankees in 2007 at age 45.

? 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/48740340/ns/sports-baseball/

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Josephine Hits The Big Time - Women Talking

Born to a Liberian mother and Jamaican father, Josephine benefits from a colourful West African culture as well as feeling intrinsically British.?

By her own admission she always knew her future was set to be a musical one

?Music was always being played in our house when I was growing up and the radio was always on.

?I was very visually inspired as a kid and I love painting and drawing and expressing myself in that way. I still have many of those pictures and even though I lived in the inner city I found a lot of things visually stimulating about it all. Broken down churches, grubby patches of grass and concrete structures, these are the types of things that inspire songs for me now ... weird how everything is connected really.

?I started playing guitar in high school and when I was 15. I found the name of a local music manager and promoter in the Yellow Pages, I sent him a tape and he said he'd get me a gig.?

But moving from practicing in the bedroom to getting her first single released was no easy feat. So just how difficult was the whole process?

?Next to impossible. I won't go into the process and the length of time it's taken and how many setbacks there have been ... it would be boring. But, put it this way, I started gigging at 15 and the single has only been released this week!?

But it isn?t just a single she has managed to release because October 8th sees her debut album ?Portrait? hit stores. So just how long did it take her to write the complete collection?

?I wrote ?I Think It Was Love? when I was 19, it's the oldest song on the album, so let's say it's taken 10 years. However, there have been multiple versions of the album, countless songs excluded, and the very last song to be written ?Last Minute? was only written last year.

?In fact I'm involved in pretty much everything, from writing the songs to picking the artwork. I think we're actually going with some pictures I took of my home town.?

There?s no hiding the fact that the music industry has been hit hard in recent years and for many artists, plummeting CD and Vinyl sales have placed a greater emphasis on live performances. Does she feel it is still possible for artists to make a long-term career in the business?

?I'm not sure. There still seem to be people making a career in music. But as things get more difficult I suppose artists might have to combine music with other things. There's no holy grail any more.

?New technologies can help in some ways. As a musician the web makes little difference stylistically speaking but in terms of promotion it?s a brilliant tool, giving you direct access to fans, with so much feedback, which is quite cool.?

One area that still divides opinion amongst fans and musicians is the place that reality TV shows such as X Factor occupy in the industry, forcing many to deliberate over whether they hinder or help the music business. Josephine has her very own opinion of the situation.

?I used to love X Factor and Pop Idol/American Idol etc ... but as the series' developed they became more about laughing at, and humiliating, people so I stopped watching. I don't really think they make that much difference in the industry. It's become such a treadmill of one hit (Christmas number one) wonders that I think the only casualties in the end are the people who win.

?After they win its seems like they have to try desperately to stay in the minds of the people who watched the show and the general public, who unfortunately are only interested in the next series and the reaction of the next winner.?

So who does she most admire in the industry today?

?I really admire Beck. No spring chicken, he released his first album at 28 I think, and is now 42. He's about to release an album as sheet music only. People just don't have to work to hear music any more, they don't have to go to a record shop and they don't even have to pay for it. By releasing his album like this, he makes people work for it again, you have to play it, or get a friend to play it, you can't just download it or stream it.?

Outside of her music, what interests occupy her?

?That's hard because I love playing my guitar when I'm not busy, and I Iike going to gigs too. But I love books and I read whenever I can. I'm a huge art fan too and I recently went to the Picasso exhibition at the Brisith museum, which was so small and simple but powerful. I'm currently reading a biography of Frida Kahlo.?

Any guilty pleasures??

?I have many. Star Trek, Stargate, Star Wars ... the list goes on, anything geeky and space related.?

And to end, if she had to put a finger on it, what really annoys this Manchester girl?

?Poor manners. Just say 'please' and 'thank you' and don't play loud music on the train, it isn't really that hard.?

?What A Day? is available now and offers audiences a tantalizing glimpse into what to expect from her album, which comes out in October.

A startling and unique, Northern talent, we think Josephine could be one to watch for 2012 and beyond.
?

George R Vaughan

Facebook?

Check out the acoustic version of "What A Day" below.

Source: http://www.womentalking.co.uk/topics/entertainment/josephine-hits-big-time

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Binge drinking college students are happier than their non-binge drinking peers, study suggests

ScienceDaily (Aug. 20, 2012) ? Why do some colleges have persistently high levels of binge drinking? It may be because, at these schools, binge drinking is associated with high status and binge drinkers are happier with their college social experience than their non-binge drinking peers, suggests new research presented at the 107th Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association in Denver, Colorado.

"Binge drinking is a symbolic proxy for high status in college," said Carolyn L. Hsu, co-author of the study and an associate professor of sociology at Colgate University. "It's what the most powerful, wealthy, and happy students on campus do. This may explain why it's such a desirable activity. When lower status students binge drink, they may be trying to tap into the benefits and the social satisfaction that those kids from high status groups enjoy. And, our findings seem to indicate that, to some extent, they succeed."

According to the study, students from higher status groups (i.e., wealthy, male, white, heterosexual, and Greek affiliated undergraduates) were consistently happier with their college social experience than their peers from lower status groups (i.e., less wealthy; female; non-white; Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Questioning (LGBTQ); and non-Greek affiliated undergraduates).

In addition, students from higher status groups were more likely than their peers from lower status groups to binge drink. "Students, who are considered more socially powerful, drink more," said Hsu, who co-authored the study with Landon Reid, a former faculty member at Colgate who is now attending law school at NYU. "Binge drinking then becomes associated with high status and the 'cool' students on campus."

However, the study found that when students from lower status groups engaged in binge drinking, their social satisfaction was higher than that of their non-binge drinking peers from lower status groups and more similar to the levels of their higher status classmates, including binge drinkers and non-binge drinkers. Hsu said binge drinking tended to attenuate the negative effects of being from a low status group on students' college social experience.

Conversely, white, wealthy, Greek affiliated, heterosexual, and male students who did not binge drink, were less happy with their social lives than students from those groups that did binge drink.

"Among all groups, we found that binge drinking and social satisfaction were strongly connected," Hsu said.

The study relied on a survey of nearly 1,600 undergraduates attending a selective Northeastern residential liberal arts college in 2009.

"Drinking culture is campus specific," Hsu said. "But, our results suggest that binge drinking and social satisfaction may also be very much associated at similar predominately white colleges with high binge drinking rates, a large Greek presence, and a residential campus."

Binge drinking is defined as consuming at least four drinks for women and five drinks for men in a single drinking session. Binge drinkers have this kind of drinking session at least once every 14 days on average. In this study, the average binge drinker drank 13.7 drinks per week, while the average non-binge drinker consumed 4.2 drinks per week. The authors assessed social satisfaction using survey questions that asked students to evaluate their overall social experience on campus.

Additionally, the authors categorized high status groups and low status groups based on previous literature regarding low graduation rates, peer discrimination, and hostile campus environments.

For example, according to the authors, LGBTQ students commonly found their campuses to be unwelcoming; women, who often enjoy more collegiate academic success than men, were more likely than their male peers to experience prejudice and sexual harassment outside of the classroom; and minority students, particularly at predominately white schools, tended to have lower graduation rates and faced increased incidents of discrimination on campus.

The authors found that while binge drinking increased social satisfaction for students from a range of lower status groups, the positive effects of binge drinking on social satisfaction were particularly strong for low income, non-Greek affiliated, and female students. LGBTQ and minority binge drinking students enjoyed increased social satisfaction in college, but were not as socially satisfied as their binge drinking peers from higher and other lower status groups.

"Minority students and members of the LGBTQ community, more than other low status students, often face discrimination and struggle with their sense of belonging on predominately white, heterosexual campuses," Hsu said. "This may be lessening the potential ameliorating impact of binge drinking on low status."

Nevertheless, the authors found that across race, socioeconomic status, gender, sexuality, and Greek or non-Greek affiliation, the connection between binge drinking and satisfaction with the college social experience, remained consistent. "Students in all groups consistently liked college more when they participated in the campuses' binge drinking culture," Hsu said.

Students were motivated to binge drink as a way of fitting in, according to Hsu. In the open comments part of the survey, many students wrote that they did not want to binge drink, but felt that it was the only socially acceptable thing to do for fun.

Interestingly, the researchers did not find evidence that unhappy students were binge drinking to self medicate. Instead, the students in the sample with the most stress, anxiety, and experiences with discrimination or sexual abuse, were the least likely to drink. "It's the kids who say everything is great who drink the most," Hsu said.

The authors found that students saw binge drinking as a logical means to adapt, survive, and seek out the most favorable life while in college. "Low status students in particular seem to be using binge drinking as a vehicle for social mobility and as a way to contend with an otherwise hostile social environment," Hsu said.

According to the authors, despite binge drinking's potential positive social effects, binge drinking students were not exempt from the negative interpersonal and health outcomes associated with heavy alcohol consumption.

"It's not that binge drinking is the solution to complex social problems," Hsu said. "Rather, it is our hope that when universities and public health professionals design alcohol related programs for students, they take into account the full range and important social motivations underlying student binge drinking."

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Disclaimer: This article is not intended to provide medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/most_popular/~3/NhhxeY9aNfY/120820090848.htm

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Noobtoob's Week in Gaming: 20/08/12

Played through the Expendables 2 game with Doc, Blue, and HP right after we recorded GOP. He guilted us into getting it.

Also more time sunk in with New Vegas. Almost have full gamerscore. The toughest one for me will likely be winning 30 games of Caravan. I never bothered to learn how to play. :|

Expendables 2 was some horrible shit. I feel your pain.

Caravan is surprisingly easy to win. It seems like a pain in the ass but it can be done pretty quickly.

As for me played some:

Deus Ex Human Revolution
Platted it. Played through 3 times start to finish since the start of the month. Became a bit of a grudge match at the end with that Foxiest Hound trophy.

Arkham City
Only played a little bit more after a long break. I like the look of these Batman games, I like the sound and voice acting, I like the exploring and characters, but hot damn do I hate the stiff controls and boring ass combat.

Darksiders
Another game I played for a bit after probably 2 years of neglect. I put it down at some point and just never got back to it. With Darksiders 2 out now I was hoping to get this finished before picking it up. We'll see how that works out.

Other than that played a few demos. Now I'm looking for something new to grab me.

Source: http://noobtoob.com/community/showthread.php?24033-Noobtoob-s-Week-in-Gaming-20-08-12

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Twitter Announces Further Slaughter of The Developers that Laid Their Golden Tweety Bird Eggs

Twitter announced on their blog on August 16th, a severe tightening of the slow moving noose its had on third party developers over the last few years. On one hand I understand Twitter?s dilemma, to control the future of its mobile apps and advertising. On the other hand its handing an ugly betrayal to developers who made Twitter?s plain vanilla service in its early years, the success it is today.

I remember joining Twitter in 2008. Twitter was boring and confusing and not much has changed. Thanks to 3rd party developers they made seemingly endless innovations and cool apps that made Twitter fun and interesting. It was exciting to see all the new apps that just kept making it better and better. Twitter helped fund a whole industry whose job it was to make it both interesting and popular. It taught other startups that the key to potential success was to get a developer API out as soon as possible. It also started an industry of Social Media Consultants who helped guide and market business? on Twitter.

All the while Twitter has stayed fairly one dimensional and plain, lacking exciting innovations internally, other than advances for Advertisers. While Twitter is walling off its garden, Google+ and Facebook are becoming more open and public. Facebook?s App Center is seeing record traffic for developer apps. Its interesting to me that Twitter is seemingly trending backwards and closing off. Developers are eagerly waiting for a solid API from Google+. Rejected developers have swarmed to App.net.

While developers have been slowly sent packing, Social Media Consultants that promote Twitter to their clients dont realize THEY are ALSO under attack. Twitter has quietly rolled out its own competition emails offering cheap advertising to companies. You can now advertise on Twitter for as little as a few dollars with Twitter offering inexpensive ads and Follower promotions. Most Social Media consultants are asleep as Twitter is now moving into their business and directly after their clients they put on Twitter in the first place. What happens when no one is interested in promoting Twitter?

While I realize Twitter has to make money somewhere, what happens when it kills off the Developers and Consultants industry that makes Twitter relevant and effectively works to promote it? Ask Digg.com. Years ago after sending top users and promoters packing they moved to Twitter and the rest is history. Twitter has stayed one dimensional opting to see itself as a news service. What happens when no one promotes Twitter, except for Twitter? What happens when the cooler bells, toys and whistles are innovated by developers for Facebook, Google+ and new networks?

Does Twitter tell the story or journal of your life? Is it a great place to share pictures and experiences that are recorded for your family and friends in notes and photos to peruse? No. Other than driving traffic to links, news and being a mass texting service Twitter doesnt have much more to offer in longevity compared to other networks. If I were to pick between Twitter, Facebook and Google+ as to which would likely be abandoned and dis-interesting first?it would be Twitter.

One way or another it will interesting to see what develops. Twitter is too plain and I can see that out of all the offerings of the other 2 major networks it would be the first easily abandon-able and forgettable service comparatively. All of its focus is cashing the check on users to sell to advertisers at this point. Google+ is a hybrid replacement of Facebook and Twitter. How long will people endure the 140 character limits that now seem antique and behind the times?

I?ve always loved Twitter and saw a vision of it being much more. One way or another the story unfolding will be interesting to say the least and in the meantime stay tuned?.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheChrisVossShow/~3/eU5LEjyltzc/

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Coffee Capsules compatible Nespresso Make ... - Food and Drinks

Coffee is becoming a popular drink now days, especially in winters! Gone are the days when people have to spend so much time in preparing coffee. Now we have coffee making machines such as Nespresso that makes instant coffee and saves one?s precious time. Nespresso is the brand name of Nestle Nespresso ? a unit of Nestle Group Switzerland. Nespresso machines brew espresso from coffee capsules that contain of dark roasted ground coffee and flavorings.

Coffee capsules are becoming appealing the masses as they are fast and fuss-free. Coffee Capsules compatible Nespresso has made it easy for coffee lovers to make tasty coffee for themselves as well as their guests in the coffee machines.

Variety of Coffee Capsules: Coffee Capsules compatible Nespresso are usually made of aluminium and come with air-tight seal, which maintains its quality and taste.

However, some coffee capsules are made of plastic. Coffee Capsules compatible Nespresso are available in various colors. Each color indicates a different variety and flavor of coffee. You can simply buy an empty coffee capsule and different variety of loose coffee; it will be light on your wallet.

Affordable Coffee Capsules: Most of the coffee capsules compatible Nespresso are expensive but one can save money by using refillable Nespresso Capsules. One just has to wash it after using once and re-use it for making more coffee by adding any of your favorite ground and roasted coffee. Empty and refillable coffee capsules are quite economical as compared to the costly single-use coffee capsules available in the market.

Usage of Coffee Capsules: Refillable Espresso Capsules are mostly used in restaurants, coffee bars, offices and even at home for making pleasant tasting coffee from loose espresso coffee grounds in a coffee making machine.

The coffee capsules are fast and easy to use. In order to make a cup of coffee, you simply have to fill the refillable Espressos capsules with your favorite ground coffee and press it down gently. Then clear the edge of the coffee capsule and place an aluminum filter on top of the coffee. Close the cup tightly and then put the Coffee Capsules compatible Nespresso into your Nespresso coffee making machine. You can use your refillable coffee capsules over and over again and save your money.

Advantages of using refillable coffee capsules: The Coffee Capsules compatible Nespresso make delicious coffee with layer of cream on top. Refillable Nespresso capsules are safe and can also be used for loose tea leaves and different types of cocoa powder. You can use any brand of loose coffee for filling in your empty coffee capsules. The convenience of making delicious coffee has resulted in huge sales of coffee capsules compatible Nespresso all over the world. Refillable coffee capsules are eco-friendly as they help in reducing aluminium waste, energy and also the cost of recycling. So when ever your family and friends visit your place serve them the luscious and fuss free coffee made from coffee capsules in your coffee machine. They will simply love it!

Related Coffee Articles

Source: http://www.sanadigerestaurant.com/2012/08/20/coffee-capsules-compatible-nespresso-make-scrumptious-coffee/

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Family of Joey Kovar Denies Reality Star Drug Use


The family of late Real World star Joey Kovar is adamant: drugs did NOT play a role in this 29-year old's death.

Kovar's body was found by authorities on Friday morning at a friend's house in Chicago, with blood was reportedly coming out of his mouth and nose and with the friend, Stacey Achterhof, saying Joey showed up at her residence high on cocaine.

 Joey Kovar Pic

But David Kovar tells The Chicago Tribune that his brother has been clean for six months and, as an aspiring actor, was excited about a new project.

"Everyone is in shock right now. He seemed fine, he was happier and he was doing better," Kovar said. "Everything was going very well. The very, very last thing that our family is suspecting is drugs."

Kovar was the father of a three-year old son and two-year old daughter.

Autopsy results have proven inconclusive and toxicology reports will be back in a few weeks.

Source: http://www.thehollywoodgossip.com/2012/08/family-of-joey-kovar-denies-reality-star-drug-use/

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