Predicting burglary patterns through math modeling of crime

ScienceDaily (May 31, 2012) ? Pattern formation in physical, biological, and sociological systems has been studied for many years. Despite the fact that these subject areas are completely diverse, the mathematics that describes underlying patterns in these systems can be surprisingly similar. Mathematical tools can be used to study such systems and predict their patterns.

One area where the study of pattern formation has been of growing interest is in crime modeling. It has been observed that criminal activity tends to cluster in space and time in urban settings. Analyzing spatio-temporal patterns of urban crime using mathematical modeling can reveal hidden patterns in the process of criminal activity, and potentially help establish methods for prevention.

The authors of a paper published this month in the SIAM Journal on Mathematical Analysis analyzed pattern formation as a model to predict burglaries. The rate of burglaries tends to be higher for houses that have been burglarized before or are close neighbors of those that have been burglarized. This leads to the creation of burglary hotspots. Authors Steve Cantrell, Chris Cosner, and Ra?l Man?sevich propose a model to generate patterns that would describe the specific location of such hotspots.

"Our research provides a mathematically rigorous way of connecting the geographical characteristics of a neighborhood [such as demographics, economics and ecology] to the patterns of burglary that would be seen in the neighborhood," says lead author Steve Cantrell. "Bringing geography into the model is an important step in understanding the model in realistic situations."

"Our work was inspired by models of burglary patterns that were developed by a group of mathematicians and scientists at UCLA," he goes on to explain. The UCLA group analyzed the dynamics of burglary hotspots based on the assumption that criminal agents strike based on a house's "attractiveness value."

The attractiveness value is a measure of how easily a house can be burgled without negative consequences for the burglar. Thus, when a house has been burglarized before, it increases the attractiveness value for the house and those nearby. Criminal agents move toward areas of high attractiveness values. If no additional burglaries occur in the vicinity, the attractiveness decreases.

Mathematical modeling of crime in general, and burglaries in particular, is based on the "broken window effect" or repeat victimization sociological effect, which implies that houses in areas of past burglaries have a higher chance of being burglarized.

Using two discrete models, one modeling the attractiveness of individual houses to burglars and the other modeling burglar movement, the authors of the UCLA study developed a continuum model based on a system of parabolic differential equations. Using this system as a starting point, the authors apply bifurcation theory, or the analysis of a system of ordinary di?erential equations under varying conditions, such as social or economic conditions of a neighborhood, to extend the scope of analysis. This paper expands on previous analyses and provides a general method to track social, economic or other conditions of a neighborhood over time.

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The above story is reprinted from materials provided by Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.


Journal Reference:

  1. Robert Stephen Cantrell, Chris Cosner, Raul Manasevich. Global Bifurcation of Solutions for Crime Modeling Equations. SIAM Journal on Mathematical Analysis, 2012; 44 (3): 1340 DOI: 10.1137/110843356

Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

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The Bachelorette Fashion: Emily Maynard's Wardrobe Costs How Much?!


Emily Maynard may or may not be the best-looking star of The Bachelorette yet, depending on your point of view, but she's absolutely the best-dressed.

A $350,000 wardrobe budget from ABC doesn't hurt.

“We had an enormous clothing budget,” Emily’s stylist, Cary Fetman, said. “It was bigger than any previous season ... and we still went over!”

Emily Maynard Bachelorette Photo

Not that she really needs help - her sweet nature, good looks and adorable daughter are all a guy would ever want - but Maynard, 26, is going all out style-wise.

“Emily has fabulous taste and was involved in deciding what we would dress her in,” Cary adds. “For me, it was almost like dressing a Barbie doll!”

While she dazzles in her strappy $1,045 Christian Louboutin Straratata heels and a $4,000 nude Randi Rahm gown, she does have a list of no-nos.

“Emily hates flats,” Cary revealed of the North Carolinan. “She loves to be a girlie girl. She loves dresses and anything glitzy and sparkly.”

Oh, and despite her easy-going ways, “She is not a jeans girl by any means.”

Just something to keep in mind, Arie Luyendyk, Jr. Keep it in mind.

NOTE: To see how Arie and the rest of the guys fare in the coming weeks, check out The Bachelorette spoilers page on THG ... if you dare!

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Video: More on May 30: Fear factor ? Romney

Salmonella by mail? Hatchery sparks outbreak

It took eight years and multiple tests, trace-backs and interviews with sick owners of fuzzy chicks, but federal health officials say they?ve finally clamped down on an outbreak of salmonella infections traced to live, mail-order poultry.

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Tax cases settled before April 1 won't be reopened: Mukherjee

New Delhi, May 30

In a bid to soothe investors' concerns over retrospective amendments to tax laws, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee Wednesday said the government would not reopen the cases finalised before April 1, 2012.

He said the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has issued a circular, clarifying that the cases settled before the beginning of the current financial year would not be reopened despite the retrospective amendments in the legislation.

"I gave a commitment in the parliament with regard to retrospective amendments that CBDT will issue a policy circular to clarify that in cases where assessment proceedings have become final before first day of April 2012, such cases shall not be reopened,? Mukherjee said.

"Now CBDT has issued a circular in this regard,? the finance minister said after inaugurating a new office of Income Tax Department here.

The new building called ?Pratyaksh Kar Bhawan? inaugurated Wednesday is the biggest office of income tax department.

The parliament recently approved the finance minister's budgetary proposal to amend Income Tax Act, 1961, with retrospective effect to allow authorities to tax global merger and acquisition transactions involving Indian assets and shares.

The amendment has brought into tax net the transactions like Vodafone-Hutchison, in which the government is involved in long-drawn legal battle.

Referring to the issue of transfer pricing and international taxation, Mukherjee said the government has constituted an advisory group to resolve various issues in the area.

"I have constituted an advisory group to resolve various issues in the area of transfer pricing and international taxation. The group has held its first meeting on May 25,? the finance minister said.

The finance minister said on advise of Nasscom and the advisory group, he has approved issuance of a circular to avoid multi-level TDS on software.

"This will remove hardship in case of software distributors,? he said.

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50Plus : Health : Eye Health Recipes sponsored by IRIS

A delicious and simple recipe to help prevent eye disease. Learn about the important nutrients packed into this smoothie from Dr. Barbara Pelletier, IRIS Optometrist.

Dr. Barb?s Green Smoothie
Makes 1 Glass. Double as needed.

Ingredients
2 cups packed kale leaves, washed and coarsely chopped
2 ripe kiwis, peeled and quartered
1 cup sweet green grapes (or 1 banana)
Juice of one lime
1 cup filtered water

Directions
1. Put grapes in blender. Twirl until blended.?
2. Add kiwis, kale and water. Blend until smooth.
3. Check consistency. Add water as needed.
4. Taste; flavor will vary depending on how sweet the kiwis and grapes are. Adjust accordingly.
5. If too tart, omit the lime juice and add grapes.?
6. If sweet, add lime juice.

Tips:
- If kiwis are quite sweet, you will get more eye nutrients by using more kiwis and less grapes or bananas.
? If using bananas, using lime juice is essential to reduce oxidation (browning) of the smoothie.

- Enjoy immediately and keep leftovers in individual reusable bottles in the fridge for up to four days. Before drinking leftovers, shake well.

This delicious smoothie is loaded with lutein. Lutein is found in the eye and is one of the most important nutrients in an eye healthy diet. It is also beneficial to your skin and brain. But what exactly is lutein?

Lutein and its sidekick zeaxanthin are pigments naturally occuring in plants. They are important to eye health because they absorb damaging blue light form the sun in the eye at the lens and the central part of the retina, the macula. They also act as anti-oxidants, protecting the cells in the eye from the damaging effects of the environment. People who have the most lutein and zeaxanthin in their retina have increased visual performance in terms of sharpness, contrast sensitivity and glare reduction.

Lutein and zeaxanthin help prevent cataracts and age-related macular degeneration.?In fact, a large scientific study, AREDS 2 is currently evaluating the effects of 10 mg lutein and 2 mg zeaxanthin in supplement form in preventing further damage from macular degeneration in people already diagnosed with the disease.

Our bodies cannot make lutein and zeaxanthin so we must obtain them from foods or supplements.?Lutein is found in the highest concentration leafy green vegetables, such as kale, spinach, romaine lettuce, collard greens. Another great source of lutein is egg yolks; although the amount of lutein in egg yolks is less than in dark leafy greens, it is absorbed much more efficiently in the body. Lutein needs fat to be absorbed and transported in the body.?Add a small amount of oil to your steamed leafy greens or to your stir-fry pan to reap the benefits of this powerful nutrient.

Kale contains the most lutein of all the leafy green vegetables.?One medium leaf of kale contains over 10 mg of lutein, which as high as what is being studied in a supplement form right now in AREDS 2. The lutein intake of the average North American is 1 to 3 mg per day.

Dr. Barb?s Green Smoothie is a great way to include kale into your diet and nourish your eyes with loads of lutein. Eat a few nuts as a side to help with the absorption of lutein.

Barbara Pelletier, IRIS Optometrist
Author, Eyefoods

Visit eyefoods.com for more tips on healthy eating for your eyes and visit iris.ca to book an eye exam.


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AU to take Mali to UN Security Council

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Edwards trial: still no verdict after eight days

The eighth day of trial did bring a note from one of the jurors, however, which prompted several private conversations with the attorneys in the case.

By David Zucchino,?The Los Angeles Times / May 30, 2012

Former U.S. presidential candidate and Sen. John Edwards arrives at a federal court for the sixth day of jury deliberations in Greensboro, N.C., Friday, May 25.

Gerry Broome/AP

Enlarge

An eighth day of jury deliberations in the John?Edwards?trial passed without a verdict Wednesday, but not without several episodes of drama that played out behind closed doors.

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After receiving a note from a juror, U.S. District Court Judge Catherine Eagles cleared the courtroom, twice, to confer privately with prosecutors and defense lawyers. Eagles provided no details, and defense lawyers and the court clerk declined to comment after jurors went home for the day.

The same issue also prompted the judge to meet twice in her chambers with the lawyers. ?We?ve been dealing with a note from one of the regular jurors,? Eagles said in court.

After a long day of uncertainty on the part of journalists and spectators about whether the trial was nearing an end, Eagles told the four alternate jurors that they were free to ?go on with your lives? and would no longer be required to spend their days sequestered at the courthouse. She said they would remain on call in case a replacement juror is needed.

Two young women among the alternates danced and waved their arms above their heads in the hallway just outside the courtroom as they were escorted out by federal marshals.

Marcellus McRae, a former federal prosecutor in Los Angeles who has taught trial advocacy at Harvard Law School, said sending alternates home could mean the judge believes jurors are making progress toward a verdict ? or that they are close to declaring an impasse.

McRae said the juror?s note also could reflect a wide range of issues ? from a juror refusing to take part in deliberations to disputes over how to interpret evidence or testimony.

?You can only assume that the process is still ongoing,? McRae said in a telephone interview.

If jurors inform the court that they have reached an impasse and cannot decide on a verdict, the judge is obliged to disclose that, McRae said. The clerk in Eagles? courtroom, Gloria Powell, said after court Wednesday that word of an impasse ? or a verdict ? would be announced promptly.

In releasing the alternates, Eagles referred to the color-coordinated outfits they?ve worn in recent days. ?We are going to regret not knowing the color for tomorrow,? she told them.

For the record, the clothing color for Wednesday was purple, although there was some debate among spectators whether one alternate was wearing a brown or dark plum blouse.

?Everyone in the courtroom is going to miss your cheerful faces,? Eagles told them. That might have been a reference to media speculation that one of the female alternates had smiled at and flirted with?Edwards.

The judge also told the alternates: ?We have the healthiest group of jurors with the fewest scheduling problems I think I?ve ever seen.?

Her comment suggested that the juror?s note did not involve an illness or a scheduling conflict ? though Eagles referred Tuesday to requests from jurors to leave court early on some days to attend high school graduations.

Eagles reminded jurors and alternatives, as she has several times, not to discuss the case outside the jury room, even with fellow jurors. She warned them not to surf the Internet or read or watch media reports.

Her warnings on Tuesday and Wednesday were more explicit than in the past. She said Tuesday that ?problems can arise? with jurors in a long trial with extended deliberations. She urged jurors to ?control your words.?

Jurors have been in court since jury selection was completed April 23, and have deliberated for more than 45 hours since May 18.

?Judge Eagles? tone . . . may suggest that there is something more serious troubling her,? Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond, wrote in an e-mail. ?There are many ways in which jury behavior can become an issue on appeal.?

He added: ?My sense is the judge is being as careful as possible so that the resolution is fair and justice is reached.?

Edwards, 58, the 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee, is charged with six counts of violating federal election laws during his failed campaign for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. He faces a maximum of 30 years in prison and $1.5 million in fines if convicted on all counts.

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#SciAmBlogs Tuesday - clocks and metabolism, hating raw tomatoes, vulnerable computer chips, and more.

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Does Offshore Outsourcing Suits Your Company | Cook Mark

Let?s share a tale along with you an individual began a little online coffee business. Employing in-house customer support department was from question because neither the dog owner had ever worked with answering services company and nor he?d enough money to aid it. Therefore, he outsourced the entire operation. The end result was complete disaster because the primary feature of economic was fresh beans which were shipped 95 % roasting while clients complete the procedure within their microwaves. The outsourcing contractor was less than the job as clients discover the process confusing and want proper guide, that was not given through the contractor.

The dog owner canceled anything and hired another outsourcing company located in overseas. Offshore business process outsourcing appears to become a little hard to rely on however the owner was compelled to achieve that because he had already checked the organization situated in the usa. The owner is more than pleased using the firm because it have devoted nine reps who advice the clients and therefore are very friendly. Offshore outsourcing company provided this particular service on half cost as in comparison towards the previous contractor. Who owns company had mixed feelings but he?d no choice because employing in-house employees would cost him an excessive amount of and can hinder his company?s growth and that he would also not remain competitive in market.

When you should Delegate?

Based on market research of U.S companies, a lot more than 40 % of companies with under 200 employees have recognized they have used offshore outsourcing options. Based on a BPO analyst, carrying out tasks within-house employees let the proprietors to understand things. The greater people delegate, the greater they become detached using their business. Therefore, before likely to delegate business procedures, proprietors must do little homework on all of the options and just how much they?d in a position to save with outsourcing companies. They ought to not really consider outsourcing when they aren?t able to cut their costs by a minimum of 20 %. Actually companies should have the ability to spend less about 40 % otherwise they?d be investing an excessive amount of energy in controlling the procedure.

Things to check before employing Outsourcing Firm

Outsourcing isn?t something you are able to hurry into without prior homework. The littlest particulars need to be typed out. If you?re outsourcing the client services, you will have to make certain that reps sounds formal and speak fluent British as native loudspeakers. Then you?ve to make certain to elaborate all of the features and services of the organization as without training, reps wouldn?t have the ability to perform task adequately.Besides, you?ll want someone being an intermediary to possess daily contact and discussions about queries along with other issues. You will find another issues, that ought to be looked into before employing an outsourcing firm.

1. Undedicated Teams

Another primary problem that should be assured would be that the offshore staff you hire should work exclusively for you personally. Most of the companies have frequently faced exactly the same problem the outsourcing companies don?t exclusively dedicate the teams to particular projects rather they designated multiple tasks of various clients to 1 team. This could ultimately leads to problems because the finish items aren?t not surprisingly.

2. Linguistic Barrier

Linguistic barrier is another large condition in offshore business process outsourcing. The majority of the outsourcing information mill not fluent in British language as British isn?t their native language. These kinds of troubles are faced for call handling or similar tasks. The businesses located in nations with British like a second language results in poor call handling. Therefore, businessmen ought to keep keen eye about this factor.

3. Company understanding

In-house employees also have greater understanding about the organization as in comparison towards the outsourcing company. Internally employees knows the particular situation of the organization while equally being aware of what the dog owner needs. However, the outsourcing company or its workers are totally negligent concerning the actual needs from the owner. So while outsourcing they should be trained and regularly up-to-date about the organization guidelines along with other issues.

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Face-chewing victim face surgery, long recovery

Crime Scene investigator Andres Betancourt photographs a credit card found at the scene belonging to Rudy Eugene, Tuesday, May 29, 2012 in Miami. Authorities were seeking more witnesses Tuesday to help explain what led Eugene, who was naked, to start chewing another naked man's face and whose only response when confronted by police was to growl and keep attacking - even after being shot by police Saturday. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

Crime Scene investigator Andres Betancourt photographs a credit card found at the scene belonging to Rudy Eugene, Tuesday, May 29, 2012 in Miami. Authorities were seeking more witnesses Tuesday to help explain what led Eugene, who was naked, to start chewing another naked man's face and whose only response when confronted by police was to growl and keep attacking - even after being shot by police Saturday. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

Sgt. Javier Ortiz, vice president of the Miami Fraternal Order of Police, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, Tuesday, May 29, 2012 in Miami. Authorities were seeking more witnesses Tuesday to help explain what led Rudy Eugene, 31, who was naked, to start chewing another naked man's face and whose only response when confronted by police was to growl and keep attacking - even after being shot by police Saturday. Ortiz said it was one of the bloodiest "and goriest scenes I've ever been to." (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

Graphic shows procedure used in a facial tissue transplant surgery done in 2010.

(AP) ? A homeless man whose face was mostly chewed off in a bizarre, vicious attack faces a bigger threat from infection than from the injuries themselves, according to experts on facial reconstruction. He will require months of treatment to rebuild his features and be permanently disfigured.

Though gruesome, such severe facial injuries are generally not life threatening. The most serious risk to Ronald Poppo as he remained hospitalized Wednesday were germs that may have been introduced by the bites of the naked man who attacked him. One of the 65-year-old's eyes was also gouged out.

"The human mouth is basically filthy," said Dr. Seth Thaller, the chief of plastic and reconstructive surgery at the University of Miami's Miller School of Medicine.

It's not clear why Poppo was attacked Saturday afternoon by 31-year-old Rudy Eugene alongside a busy highway. Police have released few details, but surveillance video from a nearby building shows Eugene pulling Poppo from the shade, stripping and pummeling him before appearing to hunch over and then lie on top of him.

A witness described Eugene ripping at Poppo's face with his mouth and growling at a Miami police officer who ordered him to get off the homeless man. The officer shot and killed Eugene.

Eugene's younger brother said he was a sweet person who didn't drink much or use hard drugs.

"I wish they didn't kill him so he could tell us exactly what happened. This is very uncharacteristic of him," said the brother, who asked for anonymity to protect his family from harassment.

Police union officials representing the officer said the scene on the MacArthur Causeway was one of the goriest they had ever seen.

"He had his face eaten down to his goatee. The forehead was just bone. No nose, no mouth," said Sgt. Armando Aguilar, president of the Miami Fraternal Order of Police.

Poppo has been in critical condition in recent days, but police didn't give an update on his condition Wednesday.

Thaller, who is not treating Poppo, and other plastic surgeons said the rebuilding of Poppo's face would happen in stages after doctors try to keep his wounds clean, salvage viable tissue and determine a plan for skin grafts. Protecting his remaining eye and maintaining an airway are priorities.

To keep the wounds clean, doctors use grafts of the patient's skin, cadaver skin or synthetic skin to cover the exposed bone or cartilage, said Dr. Blane Shatkin, a plastic surgeon and director of the wound healing center at Memorial Hospital Pembroke in South Florida. The coverage would act like a dressing, protecting the wound as it heals.

Poppo's lifestyle and health before the attack could determine how doctors proceed and whether they eventually consider a facial transplant, plastic surgeons said. Poppo had been homeless for more than 30 years, previously survived a gunshot wound and faced multiple charges of public intoxication, among other arrests.

"You would not just take this guy to the OR for a face transplant ? you really have to go in a staged fashion. You save what you can and use what you have available first, don't burn any bridges and move forward slowly," Shatkin said. "And you have to see what he wants."

Psychological care is important to the recovery, and patients need to participate in the decision-making process, said Dr. Bohdan Pomahac, a surgeon at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston. He performed a facial transplant on a Connecticut woman who was mauled by a friend's pet chimpanzee in 2009.

"I think the patient has to be able to cope with the injury and the trauma and needs to figure out what has happened. It often takes them weeks to understand what has happened," Pomahac said.

The chairman of the Miami-Dade County Homeless Trust, Ron Book, said the last time Poppo sought help from the agency finding someplace to sleep was in 2004. However, on Thursday the Jungle Island zoo on the MacArthur Causeway called for an outreach team to deal with Poppo, who had been living on the roof of the attraction's parking garage.

Poppo was belligerent and aggressive, but he was not arrested, Book said.

A report from the group says that Poppo had been homeless before arriving in Florida. He first came to one of the group's shelters in Miami on Dec. 27, 1999, and he stayed for 141 days. Since then he stayed at another shelter in 2003 for 10 days and several other shelters for one night each.

The attack was captured by security cameras at The Miami Herald's headquarters. The newspaper posted the uncensored video online late Tuesday (http://hrld.us/N9GlGB).>

It shows a naked Eugene walking west on the sidewalk alongside an off-ramp of the causeway. A bicyclist speeds past Eugene just as he turns to something in the shade, in an area obscured by palm trees.

After a couple minutes, Eugene rolls Poppo's body into the sun and begins stripping off his pants and pummeling him. Later, the footage shows Eugene pull Poppo farther up the sidewalk. Though the view is partially obstructed by the mass transit rail above, Eugene appears to hunch over and lie on top of Poppo.

The footage shows a bicyclist slowly pedaling past the men about halfway through the attack, followed by a car slowly driving on the shoulder of the ramp. Cars regularly pass by the scene from the beginning of the attack, but their view was likely obstructed by a waist-high concrete barrier.

Two more bicyclists cross the scene before a police car arrives nearly 18 minutes into the attack.

An officer gets out of the car and appears to do a double-take at the scene before pulling out his gun. He fatally shot Eugene, apparently within a minute of arriving, but the shooting is obscured from view by the tracks.

Miami police have not released 911 calls. The medical examiner declined to discuss Eugene's autopsy, and results of toxicology tests could take weeks.

Eugene left his girlfriend in Fort Lauderdale around 5 a.m. Saturday, then stopped at a friend's. He said he was on his way to Urban Beach Week, a series of outdoor concerts and parties on Miami Beach, according to his brother. No one knows what led to him walking naked on the causeway.

"Where's the car, where are his clothes? We don't know where his stuff is," the brother said. "How did he get there naked in the middle of the daytime and nobody saw him?"

Police said that his car was towed from a Miami Beach street sometime Saturday. It was parked illegally and was one of dozens towed during the weekend festivities.

Eugene had a job detailing cars at a dealership and had been arrested a handful of times on marijuana-related charges, his brother said.

"I don't understand any of this," the brother said. "I know my brother, and anybody else who knows him knows he was a genuinely sweet person."

Associated Press

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